The Ministry Of Truth

It’s shaping up to be another bad year for Gordon Brown.

Cast your minds back six weeks – to 10 December 2008 – with a little help from Hansard:

The Prime Minister:  The first point of recapitalisation was to save banks that would otherwise have collapsed. We not only saved the world— [ Laughter. ]—saved the banks and led the way— [ Interruption. ] We not only saved the banks— [ Interruption. ]

Mr. Speaker: Order.

The Prime Minister: Not only did we work with other countries to save the world’s banking— [ Interruption. ] Not only did we work with other countries to save the world’s banking system, but not one depositor actually lost any money in Britain. That is the first thing. The second thing is to get the banks into a position in which they can resume lending, and that is why interest rates have come down by 3.5 per cent.—something that the Opposition said was not possible, but which actually happened.

Fast forward to this morning, 19 January 2009:

Alistair Darling today insisted he was right to use hundreds of billions of taxpayers’ money in a fresh bail-out of the banking sector, saying the recession would be much worse if he did not act.

“If the banking system collapses, every single one of us would see the obvious problems. The economy would come down with it,” he told the BBC. “The cost of not doing anything would be far, far greater. If we don’t get lending going, the recession will be longer, deeper and more painful”.

So, regardless of whether or not Arrivederci Gordon saved the world, he definitely saved the banking system.  He repeated the fact five times.  And, to boot, he said that he’d done what was needed to put the banks in the position where they can resume lending.

Not spinning, not selectively editing – these are The Great Man’s own unexpurgated words.

If he was confident enough to declare that he had saved the banking system 40 days ago, why is the banking system now in danger of collapse?  If the banks were in a position to resume lending 40 days ago, why is Captain Darling desperately trying to “get lending going” now?

Arrivederci Gordon’s marginal recovery in the opinion polls in the six weeks before Christmas had two causes.

First, there is no doubt that things steadied a little after the initial mania of the autumn and things seemed to be on a more even keel for a while.

Second, the recession did not then feel entirely real to the average punter on the street.  In terms of employment, the most important thing where Joe Bloggs is concerned, the pre-Christmas recession was only really affecting investment bankers.  Now, things have moved onto a much more traditional recessionary footing – it’s shop workers and the final few remaining in Britain’s car factories that are being hit with P45s.

Everyone feels gloomy after the new year parties and the return to work.  It’s cold, it’s dark, it’s wet, it’s windy, we’re all down with aches and pains and the recession that our government was telling us two months ago would be over by the middle of this year clearly still has a long, long, long, long way left to run.

“The Recession” will, in fact, only become official this week with the release of a second successive quarter’s figures showing declining economic output.  Having insanely talked the recession up for five months, Arrivederci Gordon has now got to deal with headlines stating that it is actually only just beginning.

To add to Gordon’s woes, Kenneth Clarke is back throwing his weight around.  (Such is the sheer physical mismatch between the new Shadow Business Secretary and his opposite number in the Cabinet that his appointment might be considered queerbashing on the part of PBD.)  Clarke’s far too sensible to be doing this because he fancies one last bit of knockabout at the despatch box – he’s stayed well clear of the Tory frontbenches for the whole miserable period of opposition so far and has only flopped back into the water now because he can finally smell blood.  He’s up for another stint around the Cabinet table and finally thinks it’s a realistic possibility.

Finally, Brown’s position will be thrown into uncomfortably sharp relief at 5pm GMT tomorrow (Tuesday), when That One is sworn in as US President.  There could be no greater underlining of the need for change than when the new American President eventually deigns to grant Arrivederci Gordon an audience: watch then the contrast between the vibrant, lithe and dynamic one shaking hands with the grey, sagging and visibly knackered not-so-lithe one in the slightly askew purple tie.

More businesses are going to go tits up; more people will lose their jobs; more factories will fall silent (either temporarily or permanently); Council Tax bills will go up; it’s going to be a fucking awful year.

The blame for the kicking Labour will be given by the British electorate at the local polls at the start of May will be laid firmly at Arrivederci Gordon’s feet, with the message: “eight months on and THIS is how bad things still are?”

He dithered twice in calling that legitimising general election he so desperately craves.  His second dither will be his last.  He’s a goner.

Arrivederci Gordon had his chance – this morning has proven spectacularly that he has blown it.